Gecko expects up to 70,000 new infections per day

The Gecko Advisory Committee recommends that the availability of anti-coronavirus drugs be made easier. The current report, for example, argues in favor of streamlining e-prescribing and dispensing directly to GPs. In addition, you should look for availability in pharmacies and nursing facilities. Vienna. Even before a possible illness, potentially at-risk patients should be informed by their doctors and interactions with other drugs should be clarified. For Gecko, it is clear that the combination of vaccination and medication represents the optimal package of protection against severe flows. Sufficient preparation should be available. Of the existing 487,465 series of treatments, only 4.1 percent have been used to date.

As far as the vaccination is concerned, the fourth immunization seems to have no serious side effects. This suggests experiences from Israel. It is not yet possible to assess whether changing the vaccine after the fourth or subsequent vaccinations will lead to changes in tolerability. It is clear that with the mRNA vaccine, the reaction to the second vaccination is the most pronounced. Regarding vaccination of children, data show that vaccination is better tolerated in the 5-11 age group than in the 12-17 age group. So far, not a single case of inflammation in the area of ​​the heart has been observed in younger people.

If the contacts are reduced, the shaft moves backwards

There is still a lot of uncertainty about when the current wave will peak. The two effects should ensure that there is an initial effect of slowing down the spread of infection. On the one hand, it is the beginning of the vacation season with increased travel activity, which is again connected with the closing of schools, but also with the emptying of offices. On the other hand, there is also the effect of behavioral changes due to greater awareness of the risk above a certain number of infections, around 20,000 new cases per day.

Depending on how pronounced these effects are, the peak time is estimated. If contacts at your own risk are greatly reduced, the peak should not occur until the beginning of autumn. If this is the case to a lesser extent, maximum values ​​could be reached earlier. How high it goes is obviously hard to gauge. The maximum value is assumed to range widely from 35,000 to 70,000 cases per day. 2,500 to 4,000 cases could end up in normal hospital wards, and 150 to 300 in intensive care units.

Overall, Gecko believes that a stressful situation for the healthcare system comparable to the first omicron wave is plausible. This means bringing together a large number of patients who need normal care combined with a mass quarantine of the population, and thus of health workers.

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